Category Archives: NFL Pro Football
Super Bowl XLIII Preview from the team at Bodog Sports.
Sunday, Feb. 1 is the singular red-letter day on the betting calendar, the mother of all sporting events: Super Bowl XLIII at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
The matchup between the Arizona Cardinals (12-7 SU and ATS) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS) is being treated as a watershed moment for the sports gambling industry.
Action is already coming in fast on both sides with the Steelers opening as 7-point favorites (-105). The total is 47, and according to market reports, roughly 70 percent of bettors at press time were taking the over at +100.
(for more see BookieLabrat.com )
The New York Giants kicked off their Super Bowl title defense with a tight win – displaying a very strong defense.
Playing without Pro Bowl linemen Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora, the Giants defense limited the new-look Washington Redskins to 11 first downs and 209 total yards as they edged a 16-7 victory.
Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning, run in the first drive of the night for what turned out to be the ONLY Giants touchdown of the match.
Down 0-16, Reskins QB Jason Campbell threw a 12-yard touchdown pass to Santana Moss with 13 seconds to play in the first half to narrow the gap to 9 points.
But there was no further scoring in the second half.
The Brett Favre era in Green Bay is now officially over. But his legendary career is not.
The month-long saga has finally come to an end, with the Packers agreeing to trade their future Hall-of-Fame quarterback to the New York Jets, FOXSports.com first reported Wednesday night.
Favre’s new No. 4 Jets jersey already was for sale on the team’s Web site about an hour after the trade was announced.
We’ve had five weeks of the NFL season now – and I’m pleased to report that both of the two serious systems are now in profit.
Lets start with our ATS system nicknamed “Abe” which ran up a 5-1 record this week with some good winners like Carolina (+3) and the Bills (+10) and also some luck in getting ST Louis (+3.5) to somehow cover as well.
He’s listed on the Wantawinner.com NFL picks page as Cheesehead – and now has a 20-14-2 record for a top ranked +15% yield.
Also in profit is the moneyline “value bet” system known as Vincent.
Basically – he’ll take bets only where he thinks that the public is out of line with the real chances – which usually (but not always) means betting on the underdog.
Vincent went just 1-3 this week, but did land the Chicago Bears at +165 (2.65) and although he’s only 16-24 overall that’s still good enough for a $484 profit with his big prices.
Our short priced favourites backing system Marvin only picks the most likely sides. He went 3-0 this weekend for a small profit to take his overall record to 19-10.
Although he has the best strikerate though – he’s losing around 13% – and I’ll repeat again that we do NOT expect this system to make money – as Sportsbooks do not go broke on these bets.
Finally, Eddie (our extreme value system) could not match last weeks stunning performance when he went 3-1 and quadrupled his stake.
Eddie went 0-3 this week losing with Kansas City, the NY Jets and San Francisco as he search for extreme underdog moneyline winners.
The jury is still out as to whether Eddie can make a profit – or whether the betting market is too efficient to allow big value to sit out there.
I’m looking forward to week #6 already !!
It was another interesting round of games this week – and as the results keep coming in the systems get tighter and tighter and we are starting to see some profits emerge.
Marvin went 5-1 this weekend with his short priced winners by picking kansas City, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England and Philadelphia with only San Diegos defeat in GReen Bay preventing the clean sweep.
A +11% yield on stakes for the big man put a smiule on his face.
Also smiling was Vincent who went 4-5 with his “Value picks” and that was enough to make $96 for the weekend (or a +10.6% yield) as he got good prices for the Chiefs, the Jags, the Cowboys and The Titans.
He’s back with another couple of choices this weekend too
Abe (the Cheesehead) slipped into the loss column with a 2-3 record (and a push on Kansas City) against the spread – but over all he is 13-12-2 and show a very slight profit.
Finally we have “Crazy” Eddie who ran up a 1-3 record with his dogs – the New York Giants came home at a tasty +176 (2.76) – but the other three choices were losers and it’s another week in the doghouse for him.
Four more choices this week from Eddie – including Cincinnati to beat New England … is he nuts? Or Nostradamus?
We will know on Monday night.
It was a pretty mixed effort in week one from our four NFL tipping systems with only one punter getting into the profit zone.
Marvin led the way with a 5-2 moneyline effort in week one. He runs a “most likely winners” system and doesn’t care about the line or the prices – he simply attempts to pick the most likely winners each week and sweep the board.
Last season Marvin went 63-24 (72%) on home sides and 24-15 (62%) on road sides.
The other three tipsters all produced losing efforts in week #1.
Next best was our favourite Geen Bay Packers fan Abe the Cheesehead who started well with the Carolina Panthers early but slipped to a 1-2 record after both the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants lost.
Abe was with us for the end of last season – and is still 9-7 overall – but needs to get back into the winners circle next week.
Sitting 3rd after week #1 is Eddie who is running the extreme underdog system.
He also won with the Panthers (who were technically an underdog at +1) but failed to get any joy from the Giants, the Chiefs or the Dolphins and finished his debut week at 1-3.
Finally we have Vincent who just didn’t get going at all. Things started badly with the New Orleans Saint getting humbled 41-10 by the Colts and kept getting worse.
Only the GB Packers and the Detroit Lions gave any joy as Vincent’s “value bets” slipped to a 2-8 record and big losses. We expect better things.
Of course it is only week one, and as with all systems the opening weeks are the ones where the bettingstakes are kept low. We suggest that you continue that plan during the rest of September as we what for all the stats to adjust and the systems to get their correct rankings for all the teams.
You’ll be able to see the picks for Week #2 of NFL Football shortly.
What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports Book?
We asked Simon Noble from PinnacleSports to give us the run down on the betting trends so far …
Chicago +6.5 +103 vs. Indianapolis
It appears like our opening line of Indianapolis -6.5 is solid, as we haven’t had to move off the number just yet. In the nearly two weeks since the Conference Championships, the Super Bowl line has only moved four cents from -115 to -111.
Public opinion of the AFC being the stronger conference has been evident throughout, while the larger volume bets have come in on the Bears. While the line is standing at 6.5 (-111), it could easily move to the 7 on Sunday when we expect a flurry of bets before kickoff.
Chicago vs. Indianapolis Under 48 points -115
The Super Bowl total opened at 48.5 with two-way betting to start although the heavier volume came in on the under pushing the line down a few cents. This was followed by many small wagers on the over, mixed in with plays on the under. The line was pushed down to 48 after several large plays on the under from our sharper players. Although we’ve received three times as many plays on the over, the larger volume on the under has the line standing at -115 on the under, which could move another half point by kickoff on Sunday to 47.5.
Chicago +3.5 -102 vs. Indianapolis 1st Half
Indianapolis opened as 4-point favorites in the first half at -111. All of the early betting for the Super Bowl first half line was on Chicago, dropping the line to 3.5 before we saw any buyback on the Colts. The line has since settled at 3.5 where we are seeing more balanced action.
Chicago vs. Indianapolis 1st Half Under 24.5 -132
We opened the first half total at 24.5 with the under a -125 favorite. Early betting clearly favored the over with some mixed buyback on the under. The line has been lowered seven cents due to the game total being lowered even though we’ve received five times more plays on the first half over.
What are players betting at Pinnacle Sports Book?
New Orleans +2.5 -104 v. Chicago
The Bears originally opened at -3 (-120) at home in the NFC Championship Game. The early bettors pounced on the Saints with larger volume driving the price downward. Following Chicago’s narrow overtime win against Seattle last week, the public appears to be on the Saints bandwagon heading into the Championship Game. The line moved all the way down to Chicago -1 before we started receiving Bears action, which has pushed the number back up to 2.5.
New England +3 +110 v. Indianapolis
We originally opened the Colts as 3-point favorites at +104 as we expected bettors would move the line quickly off the 3. Early volume came in on Indy, but was immediately followed by buyback on the Patriots. While the bet count favors New England by a 3-to-2 ratio at this point, there is much more volume on Indianapolis reaching its first Super Bowl with Peyton Manning at the helm. As game day approaches, it won’t be shocking to see this game move off the 3 if players continue to back the Colts at home.
Our NFL Spread Tipster “Cheesehead” hit his marks during last weekend’s divisional playoffs winning all three of his recommended bets ATS.
He took the visitors in three of the matchups, favouring the Eagles (+5.0), the Seahawks (+9.5) and the Pats (+5.0) for a trifecta of winning tips.
The Pats won outright over the Chargers, whiel the other two sides were able to keep it close and cover the spread.
That’s enough to push the rabid Green Bay Packers fan (don’t hold that against him) into a profit now with an 8-5 record since he started during the holiday season.
You can see CheeseHead’s Tipster profile and recent tips here.
We’ve finally got around to moving off the blog and forum and presenting some of our weekly contributors picks in a more user friendly format.
By visiting the WantaWinner.com front page you can get FREE access to all the picks and tip from our group of pundits.
We’ve got Mike, Mario and Wolfgang serving up “home banker” bets in Europe, with Victor covering the longshot “value bets” in the English Premier League (and with a great strike rate too.
US Sports are not forgotten either, with The Wizard serving up his selection of NBA picks and PigSkin covering the NFL games too.
So get along and check out the new picks site – as it slowly comes to life over the next few days.